US Election is There for Everyone to Bet
With less than one month to go until the US Election, everyone seems up to put some money on the result. Not even billionaire Elon Musk can stay away from it. Furthermore, he’s even influencing the way polls and bookies view the upcoming duel Trump vs. Harris. Election betting platform Polymarket attracted Musk’s attention as Trump is leading Harris by 3%. Tesla’s owner believes that we should trust bookmakers more than we trust standard election polls. His reasoning lies in the fact that with bookies, people have money on the line, so they will be taking things more seriously.
Elon Musk is a man of great influence, and today, the same platform has Trump leading the polls by 10 points. This is not the first time that Musk has influenced real-life events in real-time by using the X platform. While actual polls are having different results, the decentralized betting markets such as DraftKings and Polymarket have Trump leading the way. If you have an opinion on the subject, feel free to talk to the 2024 USA president election bookmaker of your choice right away. Or wait, maybe you change your opinion in one month.
While polls are only focused on the two candidates and who is more likely to win, with bookies and their betting markets, you can bet on whatever you want. The outcome is the difference in the number of votes, under/over on the number of people voting, wins by state, and much more. This year is super interesting since Donald Trump elevated the rally game to another level, and he still hasn’t made peace with the defeat he had at the hands of Joe Biden. Now that Biden is out of the race, not even the bookies are sure on who to bet.
Predicting who will win the election is not an easy task, but platforms such as Polymarket currently favor Trump, and they post about it on Twitter. They post so much that they even got Elon Musk’s attention. The platform is managing to attract the attention of many big heads in the digital world. The prediction platform recently got a massive financial injection from the likes of Peter Thiel, who doesn’t hide he is pro-Trump, and Vitalik Buterin, who is behind the inception of Ethereum, one of the leading cryptocurrencies in the world. These men have raised a little bit over $70 million for the company only a few months ago.
Due to this investment and the popularity this website gained by being associated with names such as Musk, Thiel, and Buterin, it grew 20 times more compared to what it was at the start of the year. But, don’t think that this is the only platform growing in recent times. Most betting markets are growing and are celebrating each other’s wins. Just take a look at Kalshi. It took a massive step forward once it was allowed to place betting options on which party would rule the Congress next year. When you know that it was only a smallish prediction startup before this decision, and now it’s one of the fastest-growing prediction websites, that says a lot. With all of these developments, election day can’t come fast enough. For future events, this means that political betting markets are here to stay and even grow, and the same goes for online influencers such as Elon Musk and various other elites in this domain. Just imagine what this means for markets on state and local levels.
At the moment, the betting markets are fluctuating, but all bettors, with their collective bets, are making Trump the favorite. However, this picture changes daily. At times, Kamala Harris takes over the leading position, leaving Donald to trial by anything from 1 to 3 points. If you plan on betting on the 2024 election, you need to know that even the smallest bet can change the bookies’ minds. Consider that there are millions of people betting millions on these decentralized platforms.
People are betting on the upcoming US Election so much that the running joke is that the event itself is sponsored this way. While this is far from the truth, it is a bit concerning just how much money is flowing to bookies from people eager to predict the next US president. The one good thing already coming from it, is the fact that traditional polls are at least getting competition in terms of predicting who is in the lead in months, weeks, and days approaching the election.
The one thing no one should forget is that when it comes to bettors, the majority of them are men. There is no gender equality when it comes to betting, and this takes a bit of their precision away. Trump might be in the lead, but that’s the opinion of a predominantly male population who will bet on anything from cricket, NFL, soccer, and the US election.
Dealing too much with what the bookmakers have to say before an event this great has its downsides, too. For one, Trump supporters, Musk, and similar ones will call upon these polls later on depending on the final results of the election. If Trump wins, they’ll claim we knew all the time, why haven’t you covered it with the bookies? But, if he loses, everyone will scream that the data provided by bookies was there, but it was buried by the Democrats.
At the same time, according to the bookies, Harries leads in chances to win the popular vote, and Democrats are already celebrating her win. We’re lucky that there are only two candidates and that there’s no tie and no draw. It makes betting on this event so much easier. Everyone’s betting, but at this moment, we can’t say what the smart bet is. Can you tell us? At the moment, Harris vs. Trumps has all the makings of a blockbuster. It might be great that there would not be a lopsided duel between Trump and Biden. November can’t come fast enough.
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